Policy decisions are ‘key determinant for more sustainable transport’

The volume of global transport could double or even quadruple by 2050, according to a new study released by the International Transport Forum (ITF). GDP growth, freight intensity of economic activity and demographic change are important drivers of this growth, but key determinants for the level of future increases are policy choices, according to the ITF Transport Outlook: a report containing long-run scenarios for global transport activity and related CO2 emissions. China and India drive transport volu
December 16, 2013 Read time: 2 mins
The volume of global transport could double or even quadruple by 2050, according to a new study released by the 998 International Transport Forum (ITF). GDP growth, freight intensity of economic activity and demographic change are important drivers of this growth, but key determinants for the level of future increases are policy choices, according to the ITF Transport Outlook: a report containing long-run scenarios for global transport activity and related CO2 emissions.

China and India drive transport volume growth, with traffic increases to between 4 and 9 times the present level. Across non-7353 OECD countries, surface passenger transport volumes could be four or five times higher in 2050 than today. For the industrialised OECD area, surface passenger travel (measured in vehicle-kilometres) is projected to grow by 50-60 per cent.

For surface freight volumes - i.e. goods transported by road and rail - ITF projections put growth at up to 430 per cent in non-OECD emerging economies and up to 125 per cent for the OECD area. With low GDP growth and a decoupling of economic growth and freight intensity, the growth figures there could be 100 per cent and 40 per cent respectively at the lower end.

Strong increases in transport volumes mean strong growth of emissions from transport. The baseline projection sees global CO2 emissions from surface transport grow by 80 per cent by 2050. At the top and bottom end, the increase could be as high as 170 per cent or as low as 30 per cent. The outcome will depend not least on choosing the best long-term strategies to support growth and protect the environment. Policy choices are particularly important in the cities of emerging regions, as exploding urbanisation shapes global transport trends.

For more information on companies in this article

Related Content

  • UK transport planning not giving sufficient priority to air quality, say researchers
    August 31, 2016
    According to two university researchers, UK transport planning is not sufficiently taking into account the environmental impacts of transport choices. Their report, which is due to be presented at the Royal Geographical Society (with IBG) Annual International Conference today, says that road transport is the principal cause of air pollution in over 95 per cent of legally designated “Air Quality Management Areas” in the UK. Current estimates are that over 50,000 deaths a year can be attributed to air polluti
    Read More
  • Why integrated traffic management needs a cohesive approach
    April 10, 2012
    Traffic control is increasingly being viewed as one essential element of a wider ‘system of systems’ – the smart city. Jason Barnes, Jon Masters and David Crawford report on latest ideas and efforts for making cities ‘smarter’ Virtually every element of the fabric and utilitarian operations that make urban areas tick can now be found somewhere in the mix that is the ‘smart city’ agenda. Ideas have expanded and projects pursued in different directions as the rhetoric on making cities ‘smarter’ has grown. App
    Read More
  • Johnson Controls says US consumers are interested in start-stop systems
    May 18, 2012
    New consumer research conducted by Johnson Controls claims that 97 per cent of Americans are ready for new start-stop technology that improves the fuel economy of their vehicle. The research was conducted to gain understanding of how consumers view fuel-saving power train technologies based on attributes such as purchase price, fuel economy, annual fuel cost and performance. Focus groups across US major metropolitan areas, along with 1,200 survey respondents, provided feedback on efficient vehicle technolog
    Read More
  • Scorecard scores
    July 30, 2012
    For situations where normal cost-benefit analysis doesn't work, TNO has developed Scorecard. How can governments ascertain the best strategy for implementing innovative solutions that are influenced by knowledge and technology as well as political context, human behaviour, impact on process and organisation? TNO, the Netherlands-headquartered applied scientific research organisation, has created a scorecard that helps assess developments like SAFESPOT, the major European project which is designing cooperati
    Read More

Highlighted Content