Skip to main content

Policy decisions are ‘key determinant for more sustainable transport’

The volume of global transport could double or even quadruple by 2050, according to a new study released by the International Transport Forum (ITF). GDP growth, freight intensity of economic activity and demographic change are important drivers of this growth, but key determinants for the level of future increases are policy choices, according to the ITF Transport Outlook: a report containing long-run scenarios for global transport activity and related CO2 emissions. China and India drive transport volu
December 16, 2013 Read time: 2 mins
The volume of global transport could double or even quadruple by 2050, according to a new study released by the 998 International Transport Forum (ITF). GDP growth, freight intensity of economic activity and demographic change are important drivers of this growth, but key determinants for the level of future increases are policy choices, according to the ITF Transport Outlook: a report containing long-run scenarios for global transport activity and related CO2 emissions.

China and India drive transport volume growth, with traffic increases to between 4 and 9 times the present level. Across non-7353 OECD countries, surface passenger transport volumes could be four or five times higher in 2050 than today. For the industrialised OECD area, surface passenger travel (measured in vehicle-kilometres) is projected to grow by 50-60 per cent.

For surface freight volumes - i.e. goods transported by road and rail - ITF projections put growth at up to 430 per cent in non-OECD emerging economies and up to 125 per cent for the OECD area. With low GDP growth and a decoupling of economic growth and freight intensity, the growth figures there could be 100 per cent and 40 per cent respectively at the lower end.

Strong increases in transport volumes mean strong growth of emissions from transport. The baseline projection sees global CO2 emissions from surface transport grow by 80 per cent by 2050. At the top and bottom end, the increase could be as high as 170 per cent or as low as 30 per cent. The outcome will depend not least on choosing the best long-term strategies to support growth and protect the environment. Policy choices are particularly important in the cities of emerging regions, as exploding urbanisation shapes global transport trends.

Related Content

  • January 27, 2012
    Ramp metering delivers - again
    Though still controversial, ramp metering, which has been around for nearly 50 years, continues to deliver substantial benefits, and generally for relatively small cost. Kansas City is a case in point. In March 2010, Kansas City Scout, a partnership between the Missouri and Kansas Departments of Transportation to provide ITS for the greater Kansas City Area, activated the first ramp metering system in the region. The project is located on an 8.85km (5.5 mile) section of Interstate 435 from Metcalf Avenue to
  • October 29, 2014
    ITF Corporate Partnership Board projects highlight ways forward
    The findings of the first four projects launched by the ITF Corporate Partnership Board (CPB), the organisation's platform for engaging with the private sector, have been announced. CPB projects are designed to enrich policy discussion with a business perspective. They are launched in areas where CPB member companies identify an emerging issue in transport policy or an innovation challenge to the transport system. Led by ITF, work is carried out in collaborative fashion in working groups consisting of CP
  • August 3, 2015
    Electric buses: more billion dollar orders
    China will spend up to one trillion dollars on electric buses over the coming 15 years according to analysts IDTechEx. This will reduce the impact of over 22.5 trillion dollars from air pollution over that time, at least one percent of GDP. More insurrection will occur if corrective action is insufficient because hundreds of thousands are dying from traffic pollution and far more are suffering resultant serious disease. According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), outdoor air pollution caused 3.7 m
  • February 1, 2012
    Growth of ANPR applications for enforcement, tolling and more
    Automatic number plate recognition continues to find new applications beyond the traditional. In coming years, we can expect the application set to grow significantly Moore's Law has seen to it that computer processing power has improved out of all comparison in the 30-plus years since the first working Automatic Number Plate Recognition (ANPR) system was created by the UK's Police Scientific Development Branch. The attendant increases in systems' capabilities have resulted in ANPR being deployed globally