Skip to main content

Policy decisions are ‘key determinant for more sustainable transport’

The volume of global transport could double or even quadruple by 2050, according to a new study released by the International Transport Forum (ITF). GDP growth, freight intensity of economic activity and demographic change are important drivers of this growth, but key determinants for the level of future increases are policy choices, according to the ITF Transport Outlook: a report containing long-run scenarios for global transport activity and related CO2 emissions. China and India drive transport volu
December 16, 2013 Read time: 2 mins
The volume of global transport could double or even quadruple by 2050, according to a new study released by the 998 International Transport Forum (ITF). GDP growth, freight intensity of economic activity and demographic change are important drivers of this growth, but key determinants for the level of future increases are policy choices, according to the ITF Transport Outlook: a report containing long-run scenarios for global transport activity and related CO2 emissions.

China and India drive transport volume growth, with traffic increases to between 4 and 9 times the present level. Across non-7353 OECD countries, surface passenger transport volumes could be four or five times higher in 2050 than today. For the industrialised OECD area, surface passenger travel (measured in vehicle-kilometres) is projected to grow by 50-60 per cent.

For surface freight volumes - i.e. goods transported by road and rail - ITF projections put growth at up to 430 per cent in non-OECD emerging economies and up to 125 per cent for the OECD area. With low GDP growth and a decoupling of economic growth and freight intensity, the growth figures there could be 100 per cent and 40 per cent respectively at the lower end.

Strong increases in transport volumes mean strong growth of emissions from transport. The baseline projection sees global CO2 emissions from surface transport grow by 80 per cent by 2050. At the top and bottom end, the increase could be as high as 170 per cent or as low as 30 per cent. The outcome will depend not least on choosing the best long-term strategies to support growth and protect the environment. Policy choices are particularly important in the cities of emerging regions, as exploding urbanisation shapes global transport trends.

Related Content

  • December 2, 2016
    Moody’s projects positive 2017 outlook for US toll roads industry
    The outlook for the US toll road industry remains positive, reflecting the expectation of continued strong traffic and revenue growth in the next 12 to 18 months, according to Moody’s Investors Service in its yearly outlook, Tolls Roads – US: 2017 Outlook – Strong Traffic and Revenue Growth Support Positive Outlook. Moody’s estimates that median traffic growth among 48 rated toll roads will range from three per cent to four per cent in the remainder of 2016 and into 2017, and that median toll revenue wil
  • January 23, 2020
    Making ITS connections requires leadership
    From making the commute more bearable to saving the planet, Jim Alfred of BlackBerry Certicom believes that ITS has the capacity to drive a range of transformational opportunities – but leadership is required, he warns
  • September 27, 2013
    Global connected car market expected to reach US$131.9 billion by 2019
    New research by Transparency Market Research "Connected Car Market -Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share, Growth, Trends and Forecast, 2013- 2019" , indicates that the global connected car market is expected to reach US$131.9 billion by 2019, growing at a CAGR of 34.7 per cent from 2013 to 2019. 4G/long-term evolution (LTE) technology is in a commanding position due to its lower operating costs associated with high data transmission volumes as compared to other technologies.
  • October 14, 2014
    Webinar: The future cost of gridlock
    A new report by Inrix in collaboration with one of the world's leading economic think tanks, the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), quantifies the cost of traffic congestion on individual households and national economies in the US, UK, France and Germany. This is the first study of its kind to forecast the projected increases in these costs in these countries and their most congested cities between 2013 and 2030. Driven by urbanisation and increased GDP per capita over the next 17 ye