Policy decisions are ‘key determinant for more sustainable transport’

The volume of global transport could double or even quadruple by 2050, according to a new study released by the International Transport Forum (ITF). GDP growth, freight intensity of economic activity and demographic change are important drivers of this growth, but key determinants for the level of future increases are policy choices, according to the ITF Transport Outlook: a report containing long-run scenarios for global transport activity and related CO2 emissions. China and India drive transport volu
December 16, 2013 Read time: 2 mins
The volume of global transport could double or even quadruple by 2050, according to a new study released by the 998 International Transport Forum (ITF). GDP growth, freight intensity of economic activity and demographic change are important drivers of this growth, but key determinants for the level of future increases are policy choices, according to the ITF Transport Outlook: a report containing long-run scenarios for global transport activity and related CO2 emissions.

China and India drive transport volume growth, with traffic increases to between 4 and 9 times the present level. Across non-7353 OECD countries, surface passenger transport volumes could be four or five times higher in 2050 than today. For the industrialised OECD area, surface passenger travel (measured in vehicle-kilometres) is projected to grow by 50-60 per cent.

For surface freight volumes - i.e. goods transported by road and rail - ITF projections put growth at up to 430 per cent in non-OECD emerging economies and up to 125 per cent for the OECD area. With low GDP growth and a decoupling of economic growth and freight intensity, the growth figures there could be 100 per cent and 40 per cent respectively at the lower end.

Strong increases in transport volumes mean strong growth of emissions from transport. The baseline projection sees global CO2 emissions from surface transport grow by 80 per cent by 2050. At the top and bottom end, the increase could be as high as 170 per cent or as low as 30 per cent. The outcome will depend not least on choosing the best long-term strategies to support growth and protect the environment. Policy choices are particularly important in the cities of emerging regions, as exploding urbanisation shapes global transport trends.

Related Content

  • May 12, 2015
    Providing good public transport services ‘a challenge for rural areas’, says report
    A new report from the International Transport forum at the OECD, International Experiences on Public Transport Provision in Rural Areas, claims that, to ensure continued access to public transport for citizens in rural areas, the definition of public transport should be reconsidered by public authorities. Low population density and competition from private cars make it difficult to operate profitable commercial public transport services in rural areas, as costs per passenger are much higher than in dense
    Read More
  • December 12, 2014
    The bottom line - US surface transportation system needs major investment
    The 2015 Bottom Line Report on transportation investment needs, released by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials and the American Public Transportation Association, estimates that to meet current demand it will require an annual capital investment over six years by all levels of government in the amount of $120 billion in the nation’s highway and bridge network and US$43 billion in America’s public transportation infrastructure. To meet the combined surface transportation
    Read More
  • February 2, 2012
    Carbon finance delivers critical support to mass transit schemes
    David Crawford investigates carbon finance in transport. World Bank carbon finance grants are delivering critical support to major mass transit deployments in emerging and developing economies. Only recently operative in the transport sector, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM, see panel) is designed to generate additional income streams and improve internal rates of return on projects funded from public- and private-sector sources.
    Read More
  • May 28, 2014
    Smoothing out city freight movements
    David Crawford welcomes a national first. Urban freight movements, while commercially and socially vital, are a growing logistical headache for planners and people alike. Figures from France’s Lyon Laboratory of Transport Economics indicate that goods transport in major urban areas accounts for: 20% of traffic; 35% of CO2 emissions made by all urban trips; and 50% of the diesel used; while final km delivery runs account for 20% of the total cost of the transport chain.
    Read More

Highlighted Content