Skip to main content

New ITF Projections for urban mobility in China, India, Latin America

Transport in the urban centres of emerging economies is becoming a major battleground for combating climate change. Projections presented by ITF Economist Aimée Aguilar Jaber during the COP 20 climate change negotiations in Lima, Peru indicate that big cities in China, India and Latin America with over 500,000 inhabitants will more than double their share of world passenger transport emissions by 2050 to 20 per cent, from nine per cent in 2010, if current urban transport policies remain unchanged. 38 pe
December 19, 2014 Read time: 2 mins
Transport in the urban centres of emerging economies is becoming a major battleground for combating climate change.

Projections presented by ITF Economist Aimée Aguilar Jaber during the COP 20 climate change negotiations in Lima, Peru indicate that big cities in China, India and Latin America with over 500,000 inhabitants will more than double their share of world passenger transport emissions by 2050 to 20 per cent, from nine per cent in 2010, if current urban transport policies remain unchanged. 38 per cent of the total growth in world surface transport passenger emissions to 2050 will come from big cities in these three regions in such a business-as-usual scenario.

These new projections, released by ITF for the event, highlight a critical choice for policy-makers: whether to pursue urbanisation based on public transport or on private transport with cars and two wheelers. Sustained policies that promote either private or public urban transport lead to very different mobility futures, as projections for modal shares in 2050 show (see charts, left).

These alternative scenarios have profound impacts for the contribution of urban transport to global emissions that are detailed in the 2015 ITF Transport Outlook, of which chapter 4 containing the projections for China, India and Latin America was pre-released for the COP20 conference.

The projections were presented by ITF Economist Aimée Aguilar Jaber during the Side Event "Mitigation Potential of Urban Sustainable Low-Carbon Transport: Priorities for INDCs, NAMAs and SDGs" on 4 December, jointly organised by the 5466 Institute for Transportation and Development Policy (ITDP) and ITF.

For more information on companies in this article

Related Content

  • EU offers vision of mobility
    March 26, 2021
    Major changes are in the air for ITS in Europe: José Diez of ERF considers what the European Commission’s newly-released policy strategy for sustainable and smart mobility will mean
  • Compass4D project deploys C-ITS in Verona
    November 5, 2013
    The Compass4D project has awarded over US$500,000 of EU funding to the city of Verona to deploy three services: red light violation warning, road hazard warning, and energy efficient intersections. In Verona, one of the most advanced cities in Italy in terms of ITS cooperative systems, vehicles will be gradually equipped with in-vehicle units which will communicate with roadside units and will also be usable in the other six pilot cities. The Compass4D pilot site is located in the city centre and will invol
  • ITS needs continuity at the policy-making level
    February 1, 2012
    ITS needs to be sold to politicians in plainer terms and we need to be encouraging greater continuity at the policy-making level says Josef Czako, chairman of the IRF's Policy Committee on ITS. At the ITS World Congress in New York in 2008, the International Road Federation (IRF) held the inaugural meeting of its Policy Committee on ITS. The Policy Committee's formation, says its chairman, Kapsch's Josef Czako, reflects an ongoing concern over the lack of deployment of ITS technology on roads in anything li
  • Qualcomm: How Connected Driving Will Reduce Emissions in the EU
    September 14, 2023
    In an era marked by climate change and an urgent need for greener mobility solutions, the advent of connected driving has emerged as a promising frontier in the realm of transportation.