Skip to main content

Study forecasts growth of self-driving cars

In its latest study, “Emerging Technologies: Autonomous cars—not if, but when,”, IHS Automotive forecasts total worldwide sales of self-driving cars (SDC) will grow from nearly 230 thousand in 2025 to 11.8 million in 2035 – seven million SDCs with both driver control and autonomous control and 4.8 million that have only autonomous control. In all, there should be nearly 54 million self-driving cars in use globally by 2035. The study anticipates that nearly all of the vehicles in use are likely to be self
January 7, 2014 Read time: 3 mins
In its latest study, “Emerging Technologies: Autonomous cars—not if, but when,”, IHS Automotive forecasts total worldwide sales of self-driving cars (SDC) will grow from nearly 230 thousand in 2025 to 11.8 million in 2035 – seven million SDCs with both driver control and autonomous control and 4.8 million that have only autonomous control. In all, there should be nearly 54 million self-driving cars in use globally by 2035.

The study anticipates that nearly all of the vehicles in use are likely to be self-driving cars or self-driving commercial vehicles sometime after 2050.

The price premium for the SDC electronics technology will add between US$7,000 and US$10,000 to a car’s price in 2025, a figure that will drop to around US$5,000 in 2030 and about US$3,000 in 2035 when no driver controls are available.

“There are several benefits from self-driving cars to society, drivers and pedestrians,” says Egil Juliussen, principal analyst for infotainment and autonomous driver assisted systems at IHS Automotive, who co-authored the study with IHS Automotive senior ADAS analyst Jeremy Carlson.

“Accident rates will plunge to near zero for SDCs, although other cars will crash into SDCs, but as the market share of SDCs on the highway grows, overall accident rates will decline steadily,” Juliussen says. “Traffic congestion and air pollution per car should also decline because SDCs can be programmed to be more efficient in their driving patterns.”

The study also notes some potential barriers to SDC deployment and two major technology risks: software reliability and cyber security. The barriers include implementation of a legal framework for self-driving cars and establishment of government rules and regulations.

Autonomous car technology is already affecting driver assist systems such as adaptive cruise control, lane keep assist, and collision mitigating brake systems. Additionally, the IHS study says the first group of autonomous cars will have so-called Level 3 capability – limited self-driving that enables the driver to cede full control of all safety-critical functions under certain traffic and environmental conditions and includes auto pilot for highway travel and parking.

Coming later in the decade will be SDCs with level 4 capability – self-driving but with human controls.

North America is forecasted to account for 29 per cent of worldwide sales of self-driving cars with human controls (level 4) and self-driving only cars (level 5) in 2035, or nearly 3.5 million vehicles. China will capture the second largest share at 24 per cent, or more than 2.8 million units, while Western Europe will account for 20 per cent of the total, 2.4 million vehicles.

Related Content

  • September 4, 2015
    Australian ITS market forecast to 2020
    The latest report from Reportlinker analyses the Australian intelligent transportation systems (ITS) market and indicates that the total market is expected to reach US$1,130.2 million by 2020, at a CAGR of 14.41 per cent between 2015 and 2020. The market for the application of advanced public transportation systems is expected to grow at a CAGR of 14.90 per cent during the forecast period. The increasing demand for the use of technology in public transportation for vehicle location and real-time information
  • September 16, 2016
    Consumers ‘showing less interest in autonomous driving systems’
    After reaching an all-time high in 2015, consumer interest in autonomous driving systems has fallen in 2016, reflecting hesitance about the reliance of self-driving technology, according to a recent survey from the In-Vehicle UX (IVX) group at Strategy Analytics.
  • January 20, 2016
    Car safety market worth US$152.59 billion by 2020
    The Markets and Markets report Car Safety Market by System Type (Active Safety & Passive Safety), Safety Regulations by Region (APAC, Europe, North America & Rest of the World), Impact Analysis (Overall Market OEM, Tier I & Consumer) - Trends & Forecast to 2020 estimates the market to be US$93.73 billion in 2015 and projects that it will grow at a CAGR of 10.24 per cent to reach US$152.59 billion by 2020. The market report defines and segments the automotive safety systems market with an impact analysis
  • February 20, 2019
    Road death toll increasing in poor countries, says WHO report
    The latest figures from the World Health Organisation on road deaths make sobering reading – but they are particularly shocking when you consider how the relative poverty of countries contributes to high fatality rates, says Adam Hill Around 1.35 million people died on the world’s roads in 2016, while road traffic injuries are now the leading cause of death among young people, according to new statistics from the World Health Organisation (WHO). Perhaps the most sobering point from its latest research