Skip to main content

Europe to become the fastest growing market for ADAS

The latest report from independent technical consultancy SBD finds that, despite their huge potential to save lives, Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) have so far failed to contribute significantly to the drop in road fatalities, due primarily to stubbornly low penetration rates over the last decade. However, this is poised to change, as costs begin to fall, consumer interest continues to grow, and most importantly, independent vehicle safety assessor EuroNCAP includes some ADAS applications within
December 7, 2012 Read time: 3 mins
The latest report from independent technical consultancy 4263 SBD finds that, despite their huge potential to save lives, Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) have so far failed to contribute significantly to the drop in road fatalities, due primarily to stubbornly low penetration rates over the last decade.

However, this is poised to change, as costs begin to fall, consumer interest continues to grow, and most importantly, independent vehicle safety assessor EuroNCAP includes some ADAS applications within its star ratings.

The report goes on to say it is easy to assume that this headwind will lead to a blanket increase in market penetration for all types of ADAS; however this may not be the case. There is still some uncertainty in the market, and there is still a lack of common direction and strategy amongst OEMs. For this reason, SBD has developed an ADAS forecast based on three scenarios taking into consideration the various factors that support the growth of different ADAS systems in the market:

• Market-led: In this scenario, it is assumed that the market grows purely based on consumer demand.
• Incentive-led: In this scenario, it is assumed that the market growth is supported either by an information campaign from the EU or included within the EuroNCAP ratings.
• Mandate-led: In this scenario, it is assumed that the market growth is supported by the announcement of legislation for ADAS applications.

Based on the above scenarios, a forecast was developed by analysing current and future system availability across OEMs. The total market for ADAS is expected to grow at a CAGR of 25% and reach revenues of €9 billion by 2018.

Buoyed by the inclusion within the proposed 6437 Euro NCAP ratings, Lane Departure Warning (LDW) and Autonomous Emergency Braking (AEB) are expected to grow fastest among all ADAS applications. The market for LDW is expected to grow at a CAGR of 36% and reach 34.8% market penetration by 2018 under the incentive scenario. The revenues of LDW are expected to reach €1.6 billion by 2018.

The availability of AEB-City on low-segment vehicles heralds a change in OEM mind-sets that were traditionally pushing ADAS into higher segment vehicles. The Paris Motor Show was the opportune moment for OEMs to announce their plans on ADAS. 994 Volkswagen unveiled the new Golf with Adaptive Cruise Control as standard on higher variants. The Golf also has Lane Keep Assist/Lane Departure Warning and City Emergency Braking (AEB-City) fitted as options. The addition of standard-fit ADAS systems to high variants of the popular Golf model has the potential to significantly grow the market for ADAS in Europe.

The Euro NCAP inclusion of ADAS systems came unexpectedly quickly in Europe and caught many OEMs by surprise. However, we are seeing a significant push amongst OEMs to develop and deploy low-cost ADAS systems across their entire model range over the coming years.

Related Content

  • January 13, 2016
    Traffic management market ‘worth US$17.64 billion 2020’
    According to a new market research report published by MarketsandMarkets, the traffic management market is predicted to grow from US$4.12 billion in 2015 to US$17.64 billion by 2020, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33.8 per cent during the forecast period. Increasing environmental concerns, rapid urbanisation and population explosion, together with demand for real-time information are the main drivers driving the growth of the market. The increasing need to access real-time information capture
  • December 19, 2014
    GSM-R market coverage grows nearly 50 per cent
    GSM-R has been used in Europe for more than ten years to provide voice and data communications for railway and acts as a radio bearer for train control messages. Mandated by the European Commission and supported by the dynamic railway industry in the region, the GSM-R system has established a significant market in Europe. Over the past few years the market extended to regions outside Europe including Asia-Pacific, Middle East, and Africa. Led by Nokia, Kapsch CarrierCom, and Huawei, GSM-R track coverage
  • January 18, 2012
    Evidence growing for distance-based charging
    The case is growing for an alternative to fuel taxation for funding highway infrastructure. A more sustainable system of mileage-based charging can be established in a way that is acceptable to the travelling public, writes Jack Opiola. Fuel tax - the lifeblood relied on for 80 years to maintain and improve roads and transit systems - is now in considerable jeopardy in the United States. Increased vehicle fuel efficiency and a poor economy already hamper generation of fuel tax revenue; now a recent federal
  • February 1, 2012
    Infrastructure funding and road user charging – debate continues
    Jack Opiola provides an overview of the ongoing debate over US infrastructure funding and the progress – or lack of it – towards vehicles miles travelled road user charging. The future funding of transportation and mobility infrastructure is attracting increased attention. There has been sharp debate in the US, where landmark reports from the National Surface Transportation Infrastructure Financing Commission and the National Surface Transportation Policy and Revenue Study Commission both stated that the cu